Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
